Guardian

Jonathan Steele in Tehran
Saturday March 23, 2002

Hamid Jalaipour points at the masthead of Bonyan, the latest newspaper he has founded. "Issue 26 and we haven't been closed," he says. This is something of an achievement; his last two ventures were shut almost at birth.

With a circulation of 150,000, it is already the Tehran intelligentsia's favourite read and Mr Jalaipour has become a symbol of Iran's reformist camp two months after President Bush's "axis of evil" speech linked Iran with Iraq and North Korea.

It is a startling reversal so soon after Mr Bush's speech undermined President Mohammad Khatami's outward-looking foreign policy and handed Iran's hardliners a propaganda coup. The reformists have begun to move on to the offensive," says Bijan Khajehpour, another liberal publisher.

The speech produced unity. Iranians felt insulted to be twinned with Iraq, and although a few upper-class pre-revolution survivors muttered, "Great if the Americans bomb this lot out of power," most felt a US attack would be an outrage.

But soon the old divisions re-emerged. The conservatives argue that the reformers should accept Islamic discipline again. The reformers say that the best way to forestall a US attack is to enhance the system's legitimacy by increasing democracy.

They are even urging the government to extend President Khatami's international "dialogue" by ending its rejectionist line on Israel. The best proof of change here, they say, would be full Iranian support for Crown Prince Abdullah's peace plan.

The image of Iran as a fundamentalist tyranny where women are the largest group of victims is out of date. Not only do they enjoy more social rights than women in many of America's allied nations, from Saudi Arabia to the Gulf States, the level of public political debate is wide.

"In the Shah's time, Savak [the secret police] would have had you round for a warning next morning if you said anything critical. Nowadays these people do nothing," says a literary figure who is no friend of the regime.

Pressure on dissidents persists. Siamak Pourzand, a journalist imprisoned for over a year, pleaded guilty last week to charges of plotting a coup. His family say he has been tortured into a false confession. But three other journalists have been released on bail, along with other members of their group of liberal nationalists.

The argument between the Islamists and the secularisers continues in various degrees of code. This year the Iranian New Year on March 21 fell within the month of mourning for the Prophet's grandson, the Shi'ites spiritual founder, who was killed by Sunni enemies. But young people, who are otherwise non-political, have been out in the streets, celebrating the New Year as an authentic festival from Zoroastrian times, which predate imported Islam.

The reformists say the "states within a state" are undermining Iran's foreign policy. They cite the seizure of Iranian weapons on route to Gaza by Israeli gunboats. The shipment seems to have been authorised by Revolutionary Guards. MPs in the reformist-dominated parliament opened an investigation and the reformist press says there are 60 jetties in Iranian ports which are outside customs' control.

At a meeting of the national security Council after the Bush speech, the religious hardliners, according to Mr Khajehpour, tried to declare a state of emergency. It was rejected and the council drafted a national plan for reconciliation and revived a bill to give amnesty to all political detainees.

"Iranian society has moved from a mass structure to a pluralistic one. The hardliners don't have enough social ground any more," says Hamid Jalaipour, who is a former Revolutionary Guard.

He even says Mr Khatami should extend his efforts to build relations with the EU to the US. There is little chance of that. "The United States is not ready to change its hostile attitude to Iran. They should first show some sincerity, and recognise their policies over the last two decades have been wrong," Hamid Reza Asefi, the foreign ministry spokesman told the Guardian.

Although the Bush speech has put back the prospect of an opening to Washington, it has not damaged the campaign for internal reform as much as first seemed likely. The fact that Iran's handful of liberal publishers now feel more optimistic than they did a year ago is a significant shift.

© 2003 All Rights Reserved. Atieh Bahar Consulting.