Reuters

By Edmund Blair
Tuesday December 12, 2006

Fragile condition of Iran's economy is an election loser

Prices are ticking steadily higher, Iran's queues of jobless remain stubbornly long and investors are keeping a tight hold on their purse strings.

The perfect recipe, it would seem, for voters to punish President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his supporters in local council elections on Dec. 15, the first nationwide vote since the presidential election in 2005.

But that's not the message from those struggling to make ends meet in Iran's sprawling capital.

"I support Ahmadinejad because he is a righteous person and it is not his fault if inflation is high. It has always been going up. It has no relation to Ahmadinejad whatsoever," said Ali Farrokhi, 20, who runs a stall selling electrical supplies.

Reformists, who have been routed from local councils, parliament and the presidency after failing to fulfill promises to make a freer society, hope they can capitalize on Iran's economic woes and make a comeback in the council elections.

"The government's poor economic management has caused high inflation and more and more people are becoming worried about their future," said Shahabeddin Tabatabai, a 31-year-old reformist running for Tehran council.

There are no reliable opinion polls in Iran and political affiliations are hard to interpret due to the absence of formal party structures.

Nevertheless, analysts say a poor showing by reformists in the key battleground for the Tehran council, currently dominated by Ahmadinejad's allies, would suggest they have yet to develop an attractive alternative to the president's populist approach.

Even if reformists do make inroads, it is unlikely to be a result of Ahmadinejad's spending spree, which economists and industrialists say has fuelled inflation, or his management purge, which has been blamed for delays to oil projects.

Divisions in the conservative camp that backed Ahmadinejad's presidential bid, where some are now wary of his tendency to entrust power only to a small group of close allies, may play into reformist hands.

But analysts say it is too soon for most Iranians to judge Ahmadinejad and his political supporters on the economy.

"Ahmadinejad has a lot of (economic) reform plans but they take a lot of time to bear fruit," said Sadeq Aghili, 27, who works in a gold shop where, he says, business has plunged.

Although some topics such as criticism of the system of clerical rule are taboo in the Islamic Republic, Iranians are usually quick to point the finger over economic mismanagement.

Ahmadinejad swept to office promising to share out Iran's oil wealth more widely. And he has been doing just that at his regular rallies around the country.

Dressed in his trademark jackets -- said to cost no more than US$25 -- and viewed by many as an outsider battling against rich elites, the president promises jobs, new clinics, better sewerage facilities or new sports centers.

Crowds flock to see him, filling sacks with letters with appeals for help finding a job or support for a sick child.

"God bless Ahmadinejad, he has done many things. He is a young man who I really adore because he has taken steps that are exemplary, such as helping the elderly with their transport expenses," said 86-year-old Aliasghar Nouri.

When Ahmadinejad was Tehran mayor, his springboard for the presidency, the elderly received public transport passes.

As president of the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, he is benefiting from windfall oil earnings to fund his spending.

"He has a huge cushion called oil money. You get to gloss over a lot of mistakes. For how long, I am not sure, but I definitely know this is not sustainable," said Siamak Namazi, managing director of Atieh Bahar Consulting.

Economists blame Ahmadinejad's profligacy for a rise in inflation, which stood at 14.6 percent in the year to September.

Foreign investors fret that sanctions might be imposed in Iran's dispute with the West over its nuclear program, a row that some say is exacerbated by the president's fiery rhetoric.

Unemployment is still stuck above 10 percent, officially, and independent estimates put it higher still.

New energy projects, vital for maintaining production levels, have also slowed, which industry experts partly blame on a purge in state firms that has made managers scared to take decisions.

The press and parliament have become increasingly critical and businesses say the government, which accuses them of making excessive profits, is deterring domestic investors.

But the president, say the voters, is not to blame.

"Prices have always gone up," said Shaban, a 43-year-old bus driver navigating through Tehran's bustling streets. "I don't want to blame a single person for that."