Prices are ticking steadily higher,
Iran's queues of jobless remain stubbornly long
and investors are keeping a tight hold on their purse strings.
The perfect recipe, it would seem,
for voters to punish President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his
supporters in local council elections on Dec. 15, the first
nationwide vote since the presidential election in 2005.
But that's not the message from
those struggling to make ends meet in Iran's sprawling capital.
"I support Ahmadinejad because he
is a righteous person and it is not his fault if inflation is high.
It has always been going up. It has no relation to Ahmadinejad
whatsoever," said Ali Farrokhi, 20, who runs a stall selling
electrical supplies.
Reformists, who have been routed
from local councils, parliament and the presidency after failing to
fulfill promises to make a freer society, hope they can capitalize
on Iran's economic woes and make a comeback in the council
elections.
"The government's poor economic
management has caused high inflation and more and more people are
becoming worried about their future," said Shahabeddin Tabatabai, a
31-year-old reformist running for Tehran council.
There are no reliable opinion polls
in Iran and political affiliations are hard to interpret due to the
absence of formal party structures.
Nevertheless, analysts say a poor
showing by reformists in the key battleground for the Tehran
council, currently dominated by Ahmadinejad's allies, would suggest
they have yet to develop an attractive alternative to the
president's populist approach.
Even if reformists do make inroads,
it is unlikely to be a result of Ahmadinejad's spending spree, which
economists and industrialists say has fuelled inflation, or his
management purge, which has been blamed for delays to oil projects.
Divisions in the conservative camp
that backed Ahmadinejad's presidential bid, where some are now wary
of his tendency to entrust power only to a small group of close
allies, may play into reformist hands.
But analysts say it is too soon for
most Iranians to judge Ahmadinejad and his political supporters on
the economy.
"Ahmadinejad has a lot of
(economic) reform plans but they take a lot of time to bear fruit,"
said Sadeq Aghili, 27, who works in a gold shop where, he says,
business has plunged.
Although some topics such as
criticism of the system of clerical rule are taboo in the Islamic
Republic, Iranians are usually quick to point the finger over
economic mismanagement.
Ahmadinejad swept to office
promising to share out Iran's oil wealth more widely. And he has
been doing just that at his regular rallies around the country.
Dressed in his trademark jackets --
said to cost no more than US$25 -- and viewed by many as an outsider
battling against rich elites, the president promises jobs, new
clinics, better sewerage facilities or new sports centers.
Crowds flock to see him, filling
sacks with letters with appeals for help finding a job or support
for a sick child.
"God bless Ahmadinejad, he has done
many things. He is a young man who I really adore because he has
taken steps that are exemplary, such as helping the elderly with
their transport expenses," said 86-year-old Aliasghar Nouri.
When Ahmadinejad was Tehran mayor,
his springboard for the presidency, the elderly received public
transport passes.
As president of the world's fourth
biggest oil exporter, he is benefiting from windfall oil earnings to
fund his spending.
"He has a huge
cushion called oil money. You get to gloss over a lot of mistakes.
For how long, I am not sure, but I definitely know this is not
sustainable," said Siamak Namazi, managing director of Atieh Bahar
Consulting.
Economists blame Ahmadinejad's
profligacy for a rise in inflation, which stood at 14.6 percent in
the year to September.
Foreign investors fret that
sanctions might be imposed in Iran's dispute with the West over its
nuclear program, a row that some say is exacerbated by the
president's fiery rhetoric.
Unemployment is still stuck above 10 percent, officially, and
independent estimates put it higher still.
New energy projects, vital for maintaining production levels, have
also slowed, which industry experts partly blame on a purge in state
firms that has made managers scared to take decisions.
The press and parliament have become increasingly critical and
businesses say the government, which accuses them of making
excessive profits, is deterring domestic investors.
But the president, say the voters, is not to blame.
"Prices have always gone up," said Shaban, a 43-year-old bus driver
navigating through Tehran's bustling streets. "I don't want to blame
a single person for that."