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TEHRAN, Iran - As it faces the
threat of global sanctions from the United States and
Europe because
of suspicions that it is turning its nuclear program to
weapons production, Iran is fighting back with a
powerful weapon of its own: its vast oil and gas
resources.
Iran's ruling clerics are meticulously arranging
energy sales and building partnerships with influential
countries including China and India, as a way to win stronger
friendships around the world.
The rising price of oil, nervousness in the energy
markets and the scramble by fast-growing countries to
secure
their own access to oil supplies has lately played into
Tehran's hand. This renewed push to turn underground riches into
political power complicates the Bush administration's
attempt to isolate Iran, which holds 10 percent of the
world's oil deposits and has the second-largest gas
reserves.
High-profile talks with European negotiators continue
over the future of its nuclear program, as does the
threat of United Nations sanctions and American action
in the background.
But in the meantime, Iran has approached China and
India, two of the largest and most dynamic consumer
markets, and promised them long-term supplies of gas and
access to oil exploration.
In addition, Iran last year granted Japan,
traditionally its largest customer in Asia, even greater
access to oil.
"Iran wants to diversify its strategic alliances
and is looking to the East," said Ali Ghezelbash, an oil
analyst at Atieh Bahar Consulting, a business
consultancy in Tehran. "China and India are huge
consumers of energy and could be very powerful allies
for Iran on the international scene."
As American oil companies are barred from investing
in Iran because of unilateral sanctions, Iran's policy
is opening the door to their state-owned rivals in Asia
to build up oil and gas reserves as a counterweight.
There is no guarantee, though, that Iran's clients
will necessarily turn into political allies. Moreover,
Iran's ability to buy friendships is undermined by its
own limitations. While the country pumps close to four
million barrels of oil a day, it spends $2 billion each
year to import fuel because of a lack of refining
capacity. Then it spends another $3 billion to subsidize
gasoline that is sold here at one of the lowest prices
in the world - 8 cents a liter, or about 30 cents a
gallon.
And nearly a third of Iran's production is
unavailable for export because it is tied up in domestic
consumption, where much of it is squandered by
inefficient cars, badly insulated homes or wasteful
industries.
"Iran definitely has geology on its side," said
Vincent Lauerman, the editor in chief of Geopolitics of
Energy, an industry newsletter based in Calgary,
Alberta. "But if you look at the fields that are
producing, these tend to be mature and declining."
Still, for all its problems, Tehran is definitely
making progress in its geopolitical campaign. In
January, Iran said it would provide India with liquefied
natural gas for 25 years, an agreement valued at $40
billion. It also gave India's state-owned Oil and
Natural Gas Company, ONGC, a 20 percent stake in the
Yadavaran oil field, a 300,000 barrel-a-day project.
That agreement came on the heels of a similar deal
signed in October, a commitment to supply China with
natural gas over 30 years that also granted China's
state-owned oil company, Sinopec, a 50 percent stake in
Yadavaran, which holds an estimated 3 billion barrels of
oil reserves. This came with a potential value of $70
billion.
Iran is also trying to persuade the strategic rivals
India and Pakistan to agree to the construction of a $4
billion pipeline that would carry Iranian gas through
Pakistan to India.
In the meantime, after years of fruitless talks,
Japan's Inpex last year was granted a $2 billion
development contract for the Azadegan field, Iran's
largest discovery in the past three decades, with an
estimated 26 billion barrels of reserves.
"It is
very clear, for example in the case of China, that
their energy interest in Iran gives them a stake in
the game," said Ian Bremmer, the president of
Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy based in
New York. "Their position is much more engaged here
because of their energy policy."
Oil-rich countries, of
course, have long used their resources to expand
alliances, make new friends or punish adversaries.
Nor is energy diplomacy something new for Iran; in
the 1970's when the shah ruled Iran, the country was
very active in using its oil to build up political
support, particularly with the West.
But Iran's Islamic
regime is finding that its oil weapon can be a
double-edged sword.
With the bulk of the
world's oil reserves concentrated in the Persian
Gulf and production elsewhere slowly waning, Iran
knows that it has time on its side.
"The world will be
consuming growing amounts of oil and only five or
six countries can supply this," said Mehdi Hashemi,
a son of Iran's former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, who maintains ties with the oil
ministry. "Iran is one of them."
In 1995, Mr.
Rafsanjani, who was president then, even tried to
lure the United States into improving relations by
granting Houston-based Conoco a $1 billion oil
development deal.
But the strategy
backfired. Ten days after the announcement,
President Clinton banned American companies from
contributing to Iran's oil sector.
The following year,
Congress passed the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act, or
ILSA, which threatened penalties against American
and non-American companies investing more than $20
million in Iran and Libya's energy sectors.
"Whenever Iran has
wanted to get closer to a country it has used its
oil diplomacy," said Siamak Namazi, a managing
director at Atieh Bahar, the Tehran consultancy.
"But the history of American-Iranian relations has
been that when one opens the window, the other nails
it shut."
Iran
is counting on outside help to bolster its
stagnating production. After nearly two decades of
isolation, the clerical rulers of Iran have realized
they cannot afford the massive expansion and
modernization the industry needs without capital and
expertise from abroad.
Since the mid-1990's,
foreign investors, mainly European and Asian
companies, have poured about $15 billion into Iran's
oil and gas industry. But the country's energy
resources remain tired and have never really
recovered from the Islamic revolution of 1979.
After the clerics
toppled the shah, they cut their oil output by
two-thirds to demonstrate their resolve to sever
ties with the West; the Iranian industry then became
a prime economic target in the eight-year war
against Iraq. But when Iran signaled it was once
again ready to open up access to foreigners, the
United States imposed sanctions against its oil
sector.
From a peak
production of six million barrels of oil a day in
1974, Iran's oil output slumped to two million
barrels in the early 1980's, and has since
stabilized at around four million barrels a day, or
5 percent of the world's output.
"Iran has obviously
suffered from the departure of the expatriates, from
sanctions, from poor management, and from political
interference," said Manouchehr Takin, an analyst at
the Center for Global Energy Studies in London.
Iran's
current expansion plans call for increasing oil
production to 5.5 million barrels a day by 2010. But
since fields have an annual rate of decline of
200,000 barrels a day, Iran actually needs to find
an additional 2.5 million barrels a day - as much as
what neighboring Kuwait produces - if it wants to
meet its target.
Given the country's
restrictive investment rules and the tense political
environment, foreign investors are not rushing in.
Recently, Lord John Browne, the chief executive of
BP, angered Iranian
oil officials when he said that to do business with
Iran at the moment would be "offensive to the United
States and therefore against BP's interests."
Energy has been at
the center of Iranian politics ever since the first
foreign concession was granted in 1901 to William
Knox D'Arcy, an English businessman. It still holds
a central part in the nation's recent history - from
the creation of the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, the
nationalization of the oil sector in 1951, and the
CIA-led coup to topple the leftist prime minister,
Mohammad Mossadegh, two years later.
The question remains
very much alive today in Iran, where foreign
ownership of petroleum assets is constitutionally
prohibited and where energy policy is vigorously
debated in Parliament.
"It's true throughout
the Middle East, but the public here is very
emotional about the oil issue," Mr. Takin said. "In
Iran, the memories of the past are still very
vivid."
But as with any
high-stakes business, Iran's energy diplomacy is
partly a bluff. For many oil executives here, the
decisive coup would be, as it tried in 1995, to
attract American companies back - but this time lock
them in.
"We've been in this
business for over a hundred years," said Hossein
Kazempour Ardebili, a senior adviser to Iran's
foreign and oil ministries. "Security of supplies is
our bread and butter. If the United States is
looking for security of supplies, Iran is an
inevitable partner."
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