LONDON
(Dow Jones)-As Iranians get ready to vote for their
new president next week, western companies are
pinning their hopes on Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
returning to the country's top political post.
The ex-president's seen in the west and within Iran
as a man with both political
and
economic clout, industry sources say. Even though
there are some concerns about Rafsanjani's ability
to push through much-needed reforms or improve
investment terms for oil companies, he's considered
the best bet when it comes to getting things done in
a country where domestic squabbling and bureaucracy
have for years stunted development of the country's
key energy sector.
"He has a better feel for commercial realities than
anyone else running in this campaign," says a
London-based investment banker, requesting
anonymity. "He has the kind of experience you need
in a country which has so many political factions.
That is what matters when you are signing a deal
worth a few billions dollars."
A key player in Iran's conservative establishment
since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Rafsanjani, a 71
year old cleric, has already served twice as Iran's
president from 1989 to 1997. Today, he chairs Iran's
powerful Expediency Council and if the polls are
correct he looks set to be Iran's next president
when the country votes June 17.
Iran's ambassador to the U.K. Seyed Mohammad Hossein
Adeli, describes Rafsanjani as a "doer and a man
keen to forge strong links with the foreign
investment community." As Iran's ex-foreign minister
for economic affairs, Adeli is himself no stranger
when it comes to doing business with the
international investment community. He believes
Rafsanjani will be able to gain support from Iran's
conservative-led parliament because he has backing
from both Iran's conservative and reformist groups.
Winning support from Iran's hardline parliament
won't be easy, though, as President Mohammad Khatami
and his reformist government learnt to their cost
during two terms in office. Parliament is also a
major obstacle foreign firms face when trying to
play a part in developing Iran's massive energy
sector.
Khatami can't stand again because he's completed two
consecutive terms but even if he could the country's
lack of economic progress on his watch would rule
him out of contention.
Iran has made no secret of its eagerness to strike
energy deals with foreign partners but business in
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries'
second largest producer has been slow, mired in
domestic politics and lengthy negotiations.
In recent months, energy hungry countries such as
China and India seem willing to take the plunge and
plough billions of dollars into deals with Iran but
western oil firms appear to be taking a back seat
until the elections are over.
As all eight presidential candidates from each of
Iran's three reformist, centrist and conservative
political factions intensify their campaign ahead of
next week, western companies say that apart from
Rafsanjani, they know little of the other candidates
or their plans to do business with the outside
world.
The latest polls show hardliner and ex-police chief
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is running behind Rafsanjani
and in third place is Mostafa Moin, a reformist and
former education minister.
"It is really a case of better the devil you know,"
says an executive from a European energy major.
Speaking on condition of anonymity he adds: "So
little is known of the other candidates. What is
important for us is how any new president presents
himself to the west and particularly the U.S."
Under the U.S.- imposed Iran and Libya Sanctions Act
of 1996, foreign firms with U.S. assets are already
limited in participating in Iran's energy sector.
Western sources say Rafsanjani's apparent
conciliatory approach towards the U.S. and its'
European allies - with whom Tehran is involved in a
political showdown over its nuclear plans - could
indeed avert an international crisis.
Some even go as far as to say he could be the man to
end years of hostility with the U.S.
Icy relations between Washington and Tehran seemed
to have thawed a little in recent weeks after the
U.S. lifted its block on Iran's application to join
the World Trade Organization.
As part of his political campaign, Rafsanjani has
said economics must go hand in hand with politics.
"From his statements and manifesto, Rafsanjani
clearly plans to focus on attracting more foreign
investment into Iran," says Manoucher Takin, senior
energy consultant at the London-based Centre for
Global Energy Studies.
He believes Rafsanjani appeals to foreigners as his
approach to business is more transparent than the
other candidates. "Rafsanjani clearly seems to
favour a more capitalist free market," he adds.
Rafsanjani's eagerness to appeal to Iran's
predominantly young population also means he will
place much emphasis on easing concerns over the
state of the country's economy by creating jobs and
developing all business sectors, although oil will
be a top priority, analysts say.
Iranian oil ministry officials say they are
confident that Rafsanjani will throw his weight
behind the development of Iran's billions of barrels
of hydrocarbons, which is the backbone of the
country's economy.
"There is no doubt that Rafsanjani realises we need
to strengthen our position within OPEC," says Iran's
governor to OPEC, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili.
Foreign funds are key to Iran boosting its current
production capacity of just over 4 million
barrels-a-day to a targeted 5 million b/d within the
next few years.
Kazempour played down suggestions that Rafsanjani
will dig his heels in when it comes to reforming
Iran's oil industry.
He says if Rafsanjani comes to power, some areas
related to energy investment will be reviewed, such
as the security of supply and the length of time a
foreign business can be involved in a project.
Others however, are less confident, especially after
a recent report suggested Rafsanjani has no plans to
alter Iran's controversial buyback system.
Introduced to skirt around Iran's constitution which
prohibits foreigners from taking an equity stake in
Iran's energy sector, buybacks give payment in kind
to oil majors that develop its oil fields. The
scheme has been bitterly criticized by many foreign
companies, which would rather participate in
production sharing agreements. "Unless this report
is purely for the domestic audience, then this is a
setback for Iran's oil industry," says Mehdi Varzi,
an independent oil consultant and former head of
energy at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
He says it's imperative that any future Iranian
government shakes up existing investment terms or
the country will struggle to lift its oil production
capacity beyond current levels.
Other sources say despite constant reassurances from
Rafsanjani supporters, they are still concerned he
may not have the ability to push through much needed
reforms and improve relations with the west,
initiatives which have until now been met with
opposition by the country's hardliners.
This, they say, could be made worse if Rafsanjani
doesn't win a majority in next week's polling and
voting goes to a second round.
Already criticized by many Iranians for his reported
massive personal wealth and business dealings, some
analysts say that despite polls that point to a
Rafsanjani win, next week's outcome isn't a forgone
conclusion.
But Siamak Namazi, managing director at
Tehran-based consultants Atieh Bahar says regardless
of who is appointed president, Iran is bound to move
towards increased economic liberalization, as the
Supreme Leader, Ayatullah Ali Khamenei recently
signed off a decree, whereby all branches of the
Iranian government are obliged to adopt a more
liberal approach to the economy.